Biden Endangers Taiwan – Projects Confusion

This is a legal, diplomatic, and security outrage – false by law. It is just Biden’s latest blunder. In WWII, Americans knew “loose lips sink ships.”  Today, loose language from this president may sink an ally.  If war erupts, or worse, Taiwan is intimidated into submission, that is on Biden.

Sometimes less is more, especially in diplomacy. For decades, the US and China embraced what, in physics, you might call the “Uncertainty Principle.”  A deliberately ambiguous policy toward Taiwan – allowing for two interpretations – was the norm. Then Biden arrived.

Unpacking the problem is not hard. The Taiwan Relations Act, passed in 1979, makes a commitment to Taiwan. Many sections are soft, but 2 (b) makes clear “the policy of the United States” includes “friendly” relations, prioritizing “peace and stability,” because “the political, security and economic interests” of the region are “matters of international concern.” 

It notes diplomatic relations with Communist China “rest upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.” Anything else – including economic pressure – is “a threat to the peace and security of the Pacific area … grave concern to the United States.”

It affirms US policy is “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” That is clear.

Section 3 makes two other things clear. We will provide Taiwan “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity” as we choose.” The next paragraph is ominous.

“The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security … of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom,” which will trigger by “constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger.”

Congress, of course, has the power to “declare war.” The Act goes on to make clear Taiwan will be treated like other countries, against the backdrop of a deliberate ambiguity called the “One China policy,” by which Communist China assumes its view, we assume ours.

Now comes Biden, who, rather than deferring to the Taiwan Relations Act to validate Taiwan’s legal legitimacy – and our right to sell them weapons – creates sudden uncertainty.

Biden has decided to make US-Taiwan policy on the fly, oscillating wildly. From remarks last week saying Taiwan is “independent” to saying he is “not encouraging independence,” to defending the Taiwan Relations Act and “One China Policy” to saying Taiwan is not “independent,” he has thrown a spanner in the works.   

Similar contradictory, misleading, misinformed statements occurred in October. The predictable result is Communist Chinese opportunism. If Biden offers an opening, they will take it.

In physics, the “Uncertainty Principle” says some phenomena are hard to pin down precisely, and everyone knows it. There exists “a fundamental limit to the accuracy” around these values, such as the position and momentum of particle pairs. The point is, despite awareness of this uncertainty, the principle is solid. The same was true of policy around Taiwan – until now.

The problem with Biden’s fresh remake of policy on Taiwan, a mishmash of hard-to-reconcile half-commitments, is that China – Communist China – sees this as bumbling, internal confusion, and lack of resolve to defend the Taiwan Relations Act.

With tight, tailored, legally tested words, the Act made clear the US commitment to Taiwan’s existence, that we treat them as a nation key to the region’s stability and our defense, posture.

What Biden has done is turn this on its head. He has created confusion around the US commitment. He has placed our commitment to Taiwan, defined by the Act, in jeopardy. He has damaged American credibility as a defender of Taiwan’s liberty.

Rather than accepting longstanding law– on which our diplomatic relationship with Communist China pivots, based on how they treat Taiwan – Biden went off-script, off-balance, and rogue.

Biden freelanced in another area, about which he seems to remember little. Rather than minimizing doubt, he seems to be relitigating, reopening Taiwan’s status or non-status, depending on the day. He has allowed misinterpretation, suggesting we might let Taiwan go.

This is a legal, diplomatic, and security outrage – false by law. It is just Biden’s latest blunder. In WWII, Americans knew “loose lips sink ships.”  Today, loose language from this president may sink an ally.  If war erupts, or worse, Taiwan is intimidated into submission, that is on Biden.

Sometimes, less is more, and … more is less. US allies are worried. They see failures in Afghanistan, broken words (for example, to France), failed leadership in the Middle East, globally on energy, security guarantees, trade, finance, upholding basic treaties. They worry.

The kicker? When US allies worry about our commitments, when our word goes bad, the slope back to trust gets steep. If China takes Taiwan, the world will change forever – global power balance shift profoundly. Someone needs to get that one a cue card – and make Biden read it, no ad-libs.  What else can we do?