Government Watch / National Security / Politics

On Iran, Biden Has Put the U.S. in a No-Win Situation

AMAC Exclusive – By Simon Maas

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Both critics and supporters of the Iran nuclear deal are missing a crucial point when assessing the state of ongoing talks in Vienna to revive the accord: There’s no winning for the U.S. or its allies.

If negotiations completely fall through, Iran will continue enriching uranium at an accelerated pace, stonewalling international inspectors while marching toward a nuclear weapon. A military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities might be the only way to stop the regime from getting the bomb in such a scenario.

The problem is the Biden administration clearly has no stomach for a military option, even as a last resort — and Iran knows it. When asked about a potential military strike last week, a senior State Department official declined to address the question directly, saying only that Iran would merely trigger more “diplomatic pressure” and “economic isolation” were it not to return to strict compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.

Israel would thus need to be the one to carry out some kind of military operation, which would only buy time rather than eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat and likely lead to massive retaliation from Iran and its proxies.

If the Vienna talks are more “constructive,” however, then there are two other possible outcomes: a limited interim agreement or a full return to the 2015 deal. Both outcomes would be terrible in their own right.

The former could look something like Iran agreeing not to enrich uranium to 90%, or weapons-grade levels, in exchange for the U.S lifting sanctions. Such a deal would in no way roll back Iran’s nuclear program.

Israel has been anxious over the idea of the Biden administration seeking such a partial agreement, which would allow an Iran emboldened with cash to continue stockpiling enriched uranium. Israeli officials voiced their opposition to this potential path to President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, who was just in Israel this past week.

As Israeli officials likely realize, such a step would be temporary and almost certainly just a pitstop on the way to a full return to the nuclear deal.

And here we get to the real problem with the Vienna talks: The nuclear deal that the talks are meant to revive paves, not blocks, the road for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.

Indeed, the main issue with the deal was that the key restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program expire over the next decade.

Under the accord, which was implemented under President Obama, beginning in 2026, Tehran is free to enrich uranium using advanced, far more efficient centrifuges and to install and operate more of its older models. Then, in 2031, restrictions on the amount and level of enriched uranium that Iran can stockpile disappear.

So, if the Iranian regime abides by the deal to the letter — and if history is any guide, it won’t— it will be free, within a decade, to build as large a nuclear program as it wants.

In this scenario, Iran would build an industrial-scale nuclear program, getting rich from sanctions relief while advancing its ballistic missiles and conventional arms — with the international community’s blessing. Tehran would have increasingly less incentive to strike another nuclear deal when the current one expires, and the U.S. would lose virtually all negotiating leverage. Of course, the regime would be just as brutal, cruel, and dishonest as it is now, only with nuclear weapons.

In short, the nuclear deal ensures a nuclear crisis between the U.S. and Iran — but at a later date, when the regime is stronger and more formidable. The question for Israel and the United States is: wouldn’t it be better to face an inevitable nuclear crisis earlier, when Iran is weaker?

And all this doesn’t even take into account the prospect of Biden making further concessions to Iran beyond what’s in the original agreement. Remember, Tehran was perfectly happy not to engage in negotiations for the last several months and enrich uranium instead, giving itself more leverage. The Biden administration and its European allies were the ones desperate to get to the negotiating table as quickly as possible.

The tragedy is it didn’t have to be this way.

Former President Trump’s policy of exerting maximum economic pressure on Iran was working. According to the International Monetary Fund, for example, Iran had $122.5 billion inaccessible foreign exchange reserves in 2018. That figure plummeted to an astonishingly low $4 billion last year. The regime was hurting and desperate. With time, it would have been forced to renegotiate the nuclear deal or face an implosion at home.

At the very least, Iran would have had to choose between its survival and sustaining its robust levels of funding to its nuclear program and foreign terrorist proxies. 

But maximum pressure was never going to succeed in one four-year presidential term. Iran was obviously going to try and wait out the storm, hoping someone more accommodating — that is, a Democrat — would win the next election and stop the relentless pressure. Another term for Trump might have broken the regime. President Biden continuing the same policy could have done the same.

If only maximum pressure, like so many other Trump foreign policy successes, had survived the 2020 election.

Of course, it didn’t, because Biden entered the White House in January, evidently desperate to appease Iran in a bid to revive the nuclear deal. Blinded by a base hatred for all things Trump, he even lifted certain sanctions without negotiating for any concessions from the Iranian regime and failed to enforce other sanctions that remained in place. The results are telling: Iran exported $27 billion of non-oil goods between April 2021 and November 2021, almost $9 billion more than what it had exported in the same period in 2020.

And now here we are, in a no-win situation.

Iran is clearly using the Vienna talks as cover to advance its nuclear program and become a nuclear threshold state — a country with the ability to produce an atomic bomb quickly if it wishes. The regime is currently on the verge, if not already there, and any realistic outcome from Vienna will guarantee Iran retains this threshold status.

The nightmare scenario of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon is no longer some far-fetched fantasy. If it is in the strategic interest of the United States to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons – and it is – then the Biden administration’s approach to Iran is proving to be a massive failure. Israel, and Republicans in Congress, must act with appropriate urgency and speed.

Simon Maas is the pen name of a writer living in Virginia.


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Steven H
4 months ago

Well, talking people to death seems to be Biden’s strongest weapon. It’s worked on many American’s but Iran will only hear wind blowing and will continue on their path to destroy the US and Israel. I wouldn’t put it past Biden to pressure Israel to a military action then bail on them. Agin, another example of how he is unfit to be President.

Richard Mineti
4 months ago

It’s pretty clear that the Biden administration has caused irrepreble damage to the safety and we’ll being of our nation! It’s time to get them all out of office one way or another, quickly!

Hal
4 months ago

If the Nation can manage to survive the Biden Administration, the hoi polloi will recognize that the Democrap Party will NOT police their own members even when they have clearly demonstrated a real danger to the security and welfare of this Nation. I cannot think of one thing he has done that hasn’t been harmful to the welfare and integrity of this Nation and its governance.

Karen
4 months ago

It is obvious that Biden doesn’t make any decisions. This ignoring Iran is being done by the other idiots in the Democrat party (Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Shiff, Nadler, Waters, etc.) Guess they don’t give a rats a– about their demise and the demise of the USA.

Steven H
4 months ago
Reply to  Karen

All they care about is power at any cost!

N T Qwerty
4 months ago

Biden needs to put everything back the way president trump had it..all biden had to do was nothing..President Trump had everything set up..we didnot need to rely on any other country..we were self surficiate..then this moron gets in by stealing this election which Biden knew dam well it was going to be handed to him..anyone in their right mind knows biden doesnot even know were he is let alone his name half the time.. he is the brunt of all jokes..the signs that people have on their lawns shows how much the people cant stand biden..they say lets go brandon which we all know what that really says..that saying biden deserves..he is a disgrace..Have you seen that biden has taken GOD out of everything that GOD’S name is on..That is WACKED..if it wasnot for GOD we wouldnot have anything..GOD created everything..sadly man has been destroying everything since ADAM & EVE…I only pray that biden will do an about face and put back everything that president trump worked so hard for the united states and the american people..starting with protecting the border..the governor of texas, az..they have the stuff to finish the wall..the hell with biden build that dam wall..tell biden to let’s go brandon himself…build the rest of that wall..the presidents job is to start by protecting the legal americans..not bringing in all these illegals throughout the night..heck obama did that also with these muslims..brought them in throughout the middle of the night..we dont even know were they all are..we need to stop these nut cases and now…if things dont change and fast more people are going to snap and there will be a war starting withnthe border..people arenot safe there..very scarey…GOD NEEDS TO WIPE THEM ALL OUT LIKE IT SAYS IN THE BIBLE..THE WICKED WILL BE WIPED AWAY…WONT HAPPEN SOON ENOUGH..

N T Qwerty
4 months ago

Biden is a moron..cant say it enough..Is he that stupid to not realize that president trump was looking out to better the united states?? president trump put the fear back into the united states and he wasnot going to back down or owe any other country..Biden this moron only cares about lining his own pockets and destroying the united states..President Trump was the best president ever..President Trump was the only president who built back up the military to be the best ..then this idiot Biden leaves million of guns etc over in afganistan for them to take all the top military planes and guns etc…Biden will be the cause of a third war coming to the united states..He Has no DAM business being in the white house to protect the american people..HE IS AN IDIOT…The sick part is that maggot will not live long enough to live through the damage that he is bringing into the united states..we need to wake up and get these democrooks the hell out of the goverment..President trump worked the hardest for all americans and they the democrooks got away with stealing this election from president trump..anyone with a full brain knows that president trump loves the united states as much as he loves and believes in GOD…Biden. crooked hilary,Obama they are with satan..they are destroying the united states..The military should get them all out of office..the republicians are the ones we need in the whitehouse..not these crooked democrooks…I am so disgusted that the head judge of the supreme court knew dam well that this election was stolen from president trump..these democrooks had and have proof that the judge was also one of the sick’o that was going to epsteins island and that judge didnot want that coming out…so because of that sick’o the united states is paying the price of having this crooked nutcase in the whitehouse destroying all the good that president trump worked so hard for..we want that kind of president in the whitehouse..who is for the people and loves the united states as much as president trump does..it isnot about the power..it is about making the united states the best of the best..and that is what president trump did..this moron crooked biden is destroying the united states…we need to wake up and get him and all these democrooks out of office asap..just look at california with what they have done to that state..what a cesspool…god bless president trump and GOD Bless america..the democrooks will burn in hell..that you can bet on..GOD will take care of them all in due time…wont be soon enough..

GKP
4 months ago

Its time for this Dementia Loser to be thrown out of office and most of his cabinet should go to jail. The power of the military leaders should destroy the nuclear sites in IRAN and dismantle all agreements with this regime for now and in the future.These radical idiots need to be dealt with for the safety of the USA. Impeach Biden and get the TRUMPSTER back in office and the problems will cease because TRUMP delivers on a promise and Biden hides in his closet/GO CONSERVATIVES

Margaret
4 months ago

Way too scary. We need strong leadership to get us through this situation

Tim
4 months ago

Biden will be impeached in 2023!!!America needs the Convention of States to block Biden’s foreign policy blunders which are a fall out of Obama disaster with Iran!!!

Bob
4 months ago

Why does the author use a pen name. It gives the appearance of less credibility. This is similar to left wing progressive media sources like CNN who use “anonymous” sources.

Mike
4 months ago

. . . and just think , we have 3 more years of lies, smirky smiles , and blaming everyone else , and not taking responsibility . Biden is a failure, and that’s the bottom line. Everything that President Trump implemented has been reversed by JB out of hatred for DT. It doesn’t matter if it helps the American people. Whatever doesn’t make sense, is what this administration does. These countries that hate America, are licking their chops. The American people see it, why can’t Joe Biden?

REB1957
4 months ago

It appears that Iran is on track to build à weapon. Under Obama’s plan, they could not produce a bomb for 10 years; his final two plus Hillary’s eight. Unfortunately, his plan failed. But, Iran is still on track.

Should we be shocked that puppet Uncle Joe is aiding in this effort? The DSC (Democrat Socialist Communist) Party is not a pro-Isreal friend.

Israel needs to prepare itself with or without the aide of the DSC Party.

Max
4 months ago
Reply to  REB1957

Israel is always prepared, they will do what is necessary for their security with or without the support of the USA. With this present administration in power, should something happen where Israel has to defend its interest, there will be nothing but contempt coming from the Executive and Legislative branches of our government.

Pietre B Crichfield
4 months ago

I am very disappointed with AMAC, I tried to buy Roadside Assistance from Amac and I followed the instructions and called the number that was given and even pushed 1 when told to and all I got was a person telling me that they don’t sign up customers for the Roadside Assistance. I did this twice and the called the main and instead of helping me they told me I didn’t call the right number, basically calling me a liar. I believe that AMAC is a scam made to take money from seniors and I will not be renewing my subscription with AMAC.

Caroline
4 months ago

Why is this comment even in here?? Has nothing to do with the article above. And if he has membership in AMAC, he already has Roadside Service. If he does not have membership, he can’t just buy Roadside Service. AMAC is an excellent organization and does not deserve this kind of complaint. Call AMAC and join with a membership if you want the service. Or get it through your own auto insurance.

Tex in London
4 months ago

And the REAL losers, no matter what, are the poor ordinary citizens of Iran — 80% of them living below the poverty line — with the most corrupt, vicious, regime over them — the Ayatollah, Raisi, the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards — who machine-gun the desperate people brave enough to take to the streets for peaceful demonstrations. MANY are thrown into the most cruel of jails for years with no trial whatsoever, their little children living on the streets are picked up and turned into “child soldiers” for the regime. It almost makes Little Rocket Man’s domain look good in comparison. The regime has plundered the once-wonderful water systems of the country, the people in some areas literally have no water, the basic crops, rice in particular, are no more, etc, etc.

Pete from St Pete
5 months ago

So Joe Biden and his woke friends have put us in a “lose-lose” situation. What else would you expect when you elect a loser?

Rik
5 months ago

Jackass Joe Lyin Biden has already surpassed Jimmy Carter as America’s WORST PRESIDENT in History and will further cement his status that will never be even remotely challenged ever again! Congratulations, Jackass Joe!

Randy
5 months ago
Reply to  Rik

Joe is not the president. He is a president. We don’t know but highly suspect who’s running the white House. Some of the curtain is pulled back, we see!

Sean Richman
5 months ago

Iran,north korea,china,russia,afganistan and the outlaw regimes have to be stopped,PERIOD.Maybe”sloppy joe”should ask PRESIDENT TRUMP for advice because the idiots and handlers have things in AMERICA so screwed up that I am beginning to wonder if even a business man like PRESIDENT TRUMP can straighten out this mess.At least he’s not a politician and not”beholding”to any”slipshod”cult.

Jerry
5 months ago

This jerk is an imbecile. I’m afraid we won’t survive three more years of this DemonRat regime.

Philip Hammersley
5 months ago

This is what happens when Barney Fife becomes president! We HAD George S. Patton and have devolved to Bumbling Barney!

5 months ago

Sounds like a very dangerous mess that the Biden cabal has put the US and the world into.

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