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Virginia and New Jersey Election Results: What They Could Mean For 2022?

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“It was a red wave,” stated Stephen M. Sweeney, the Democrat President of the New Jersey State Senate and the second most powerful man in the Garden State. The now-defeated Sweeney, who had served in the state legislature since 2002, lost the closely contested 3rd district seat to Edward Durr, a truck driver. “The man who is poised to topple one of New Jersey’s most feared political kingpins has never held public office, he has been a commercial truck driver for 25 years, and he claims to have spent a whopping $153 during the primary portion of his campaign,” NJ.com reported. Durr bested Sweeney by about 2,000 votes. 

Statewide polls conducted in New Jersey leading up to election day had incumbent Governor Phil Murphy sitting on solid ground. One week before election day, a Monmouth University poll showed Murphy up 11% over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, a former State Assemblymember. The Real Clear Politics average of polls on Election Day had Murphy up 7.8%. As of this writing, Murphy looks likely to retain his seat as he leads by about 65,500 votes with 70,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted, but Ciattarelli has yet to concede. While that may be the case, it’s a far cry from the 11% advantage Murphy thought he had.

Heading into Election Day, New Jersey Democrats held 25 of 40 seats in the Senate and 52 of 80 seats in the Assembly. This year, there were four open seats in the Senate and 11 in the Assembly. So far, Democrats have secured 23 seats in the Senate and 43 in the Assembly, enough to keep majorities. “But early results show Democrats will lose one seat in the Senate and from four to eight seats in the Assembly,” NJ.com reported.

About 300 miles south of Trenton, things went even worse for Virginia Democrats. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) had comfortably led Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin in the polls for months. But the tide was beginning to turn as Election Day approached. Youngkin, a businessman who hasn’t held office before, ended up defeating McAuliffe 51%-49%. While it can be argued that Youngkin’s win was slim, it was a 12-point net improvement over Trump’s 10-point loss in Virginia one year ago.

Throughout the campaign, McAuliffe chose not to talk about issues facing Virginians, instead made the race about Donald Trump. McAuliffe failed to convince voters that Youngkin was Donald Trump; meanwhile, Youngkin, to his credit, ran a disciplined campaign focused on jobs, the economy, and education. What children are taught in schools and the role of parents in their children’s education has now made Loudoun County, a suburban area on the outskirts of Washington, DC, the national epicenter of an emerging political issue. During the last debate between the two Governor hopefuls, McAuliffe stated, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” what political analysts now refer to as his famous last words. McAuliffe championed President Biden’s agenda to his detriment, whereas Youngkin, astutely aware of the impact of rising inflation under Biden, vowed to suspend the state’s gas tax. 

The impact of the 2021 Republican red wave in Virginia reverberated down to the statehouse as well, with Republicans on the verge of taking control of the lower chamber. Two races have yet to be called, but both Republicans are leading, and even if only one wins, the chamber will flip, giving national Republicans hope as they look at the 2022 map.

If history is any guide, the dramatic underperformance by Democrats in Virginia means a red wave in November of next year. In every election over the last 20 years (except for the 2001 Virginia race right after 9/11), the worse a Democrat performed compared to the previous year’s Democratic candidate for president has predicted the switch and margin of seats in the following midterm election. With a negative 12% swing from President Biden to former Governor McAuliffe in this election, the historical math tells us 2022 has the potential to mean Republicans will beat Democrats in house races by a larger margin nationally than in 2010’s wave election year.

“If you’re a Democrat and President Biden won your seat by 16 points, you’re in a competitive race next year,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said on the heels of Tuesday’s results.


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Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
2 months ago

We need TRump back in there period. Kyle L.

David
2 months ago

With or without President Trump a good honest conservative will destroy any of these idiot socialists, IF it is a fair an honest election. That remains to be seen, millions of dollars will be spent to see that they are not.

Becky
2 months ago

At this point in our History?
I see no reason to have politicians.
At all.
These are useless, self-enriching pigs. At our expense, doing nothing FOR us. Let’s call it good and get them ALL gone.

Hal
2 months ago
Reply to  Becky

Time was never riper than it is today to come up with a term limits Amendment to the Constitution. Two terms limit for Senate, three terms limit for House. And while they are at it, term limits on CIA, IRS, and FBI heads. And I think term limits (lengthy) for SC Justices as well. And how about a max limit of age, say 65-70 range max to run for POTUS. Food for thought!!

Stephen Russell
2 months ago

Red Tsunami for the nation like Reagen did in 1980 & Trump in 2017

PaulE
2 months ago

Here’s a serious suggestion for the Republican leadership like McCarthy, McConnell and the RNC, who think they can just sit back, do nothing and coast to victory in the 2022 midterms: Don’t get ahead of yourselves and instead focus on providing real, tangible commitments to the People to give them a reason to vote FOR you. No vague generalities, but some real specific deliverables the party is wiling to commit to, if the American people put the Congress back under GOP control.

Right now, a lot of establishment Republicans think they can just count on victory next year by saying how bad Biden is. While Biden is easily the most unfit and dangerous President in our history and the Democrat agenda is essentially just pure socialism, some of the “uniformed” (I’m trying to be nice here) electorate out there needs a reason to actually vote FOR YOU. As opposed to simply being against Biden and Dems at the moment. I know this may seem an obvious point, but after listening to a number of Republican politicians post last week’s election results, I’m getting the clear sense that many think they don’t have to do a thing and just sit back and wait for the midterms to roll around. That kind of bad strategy, which the Republican Party has used more than once over the last 50 years, has produced some truly disastrous results. So please put a little more effort into it this time around. Again, this meant as constructive criticism to help the GOP. Actually put some effort into it.

Kim
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Glenn Youngkin ran a smart campaign. He easily could have just parroted President Trump and taken a few votes from McAuliffe. But I didn’t hear him mention Trump’s name once, and instead won on a clear and rational plan with specifics laid out for Virginia’s economy and public education. Youngkin gave the voters some meat to chew on instead of mood music to dine by. That’s what businessmen do; they identify the problem and then come up with a solution. Well done!

PaulE
2 months ago
Reply to  Kim

I think Youngkin, like most successful business people, didn’t feel the need to endless repeat Trump’s name over and over again, like most career politicians would automatically default to. As most people already understood he stood for many of the exact same things Trump did, without it having to be endlessly spelled out. Rather Youngkin concentrated on the issues, much like Trump did when ran in both 2016 and 2020, while the Democrat candidate and all those high ranking Dems that poured into the state to stump for him, all life-long career politicians by the way, just relied on the standard deflect, deny, lie and slander tactics that are so common in politics. Now to see if Youngkin follows through and delivers on his promises like Trump did. I have no doubt the Dems in Virginia will also try to undermine his efforts at every turn, much in the same was the Dems and the swamp did with Trump.

As you say, most business people don’t waste time trying deflect from the issues at hand. We identify the problem, come up with a solution to the problem, explain how it will be implemented and then actually solve the problem. That is what all businesses are ultimately about at the end of the day. Identifying a problem or need and then addressing the issue head on.

Career politicians work off a completely different model. They identify or actually create a problem, they make extremely vague claims about how they will solve the problem with no specific time frame or detailed explanation. Then once elected, they obfuscate endlessly why the problem will take longer to resolve or that it is too complex for the average person to understand. All the while putting as much distance between themselves and the problem until the next re-election cycle comes around. Then, if the problem is still something they can milk for votes, they repeat this whole cycle all over again. Never actually solving anything and potentially making things substantially worse through a combination of gross incompetence and ideologically motivated policies.

Bill on the Hill
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Kudos to both Kim & Paul… Clearly Y’all get it… Youngkin knew full well he did NOT have to hang onto Trump’s coattails to win the VA governorship…It was his challenger & MSM that continuously dragged Trump into it…Hopefully Youngkin can follow through because make no mistake, he now has great big target on his back for the democrats to site in on…
In closing, it is a shame gov. Murphy of NJ was able to prevail with just enough votes at the end to pull it off as did the recalled gov. of CA..
I personally believe the real poll numbers will be buried forevermore on both of those liberal to the extreme democrat miscreants…
Bill on the Hill… :~)

PaulE
2 months ago

As I have pointed our earlier Bill, Democrats in the state of New Jersey have an amazing track record of “finding” just enough votes a day or two AFTER the election to out them over the top. Most so-called “progressive blue states” have been emulating this model more and more over the last few years. Much easier than having to run a grueling campaign and face the voters. Although I think Newsom in CA got a little carried away with making the fraud look way too obvious. Still the people of CA seemed to have rolled over and accepted the results. So it is what it is.

RC100
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

It is all those 3 am votes that put the damocrats in office in those states.

Honey
2 months ago
Reply to  RC100

Because the leftmost counties couldn’t get the vote count in on time. What a surprise.

Honey
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

But perhaps that game isn’t going to work as well. Because we have seen too recently the difference between a president who got good things done for us and the next who has ruined everything he touched.

Honey
2 months ago
Reply to  Kim

The jury is out on whether those who don’t adore Trump are correct. I think it is a mistake to set Trump’s support aside.
Virginia may be a purple state and not into Trump. But I think more races will be won if Trump is in the corner of a good conservative candidate.

Jim
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Could NOT have been said better!!!

Bobby
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

I’m as mad about the GOPers who are in office who need to go! You can’t be a fence walker, you can’t be a leaf in the ocean of politics and go with the tide. Either you’re in or you voted out! Our enemies are all in, stop being backless boned in your position!

James
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

By “uniformed” do you mean like sheep or [adj. 1. Always the same, as in character or degree]? I felt you tried to say uninformed which refers to more the way sheep may think. Sheeple might accurately describe members of both major parties drawing masses to follow their brand because they have always voted along party lines without examining the individual candidates spoken words. Terry McAuliffe said in a debate that “I think parents should not tell school boards what they should teach” which may indeed be famous last words for a political candidate. I thank you for putting that word “uniformed” in quotes as that made me look up the meaning.

gin
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Actually some top republicans eg McConnell have already proven themselves to be rinos.

Hal
2 months ago
Reply to  PaulE

Right!!! The Democraps have more ways to rig an election that there are ways to skin a cat!!! And I couldn’t agree more with your adjectives describing Biden (unless you put “-est” as concluding adjective on them.

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